Tony Wright • December 6, 2025

Stop Planning Your 2026 Marketing Budget Like It's 2019

December means one thing for marketing leaders: budget battles. You're in meetings defending line items, negotiating headcount, and trying to predict what the market looks like 12 months from now.

The problem? Most companies are still using budget frameworks built for a world that doesn't exist anymore.

The channels changed. The tools changed. The buyer journey changed. AI went from experiment to infrastructure. Privacy regulations rewrote the targeting playbook. But somehow, the budget template looks exactly like it did five years ago.

You're allocating 2026 dollars using 2019 logic. That's a losing bet.

The Martech vs. Media Myth

For years, the conventional wisdom was simple: put your money into media. Ads drive awareness. Awareness drives leads. Leads drive revenue.

That math is broken.

Deloitte's 2025 research across nearly 1,400 marketing organizations found something that surprised a lot of people: companies investing more in martech than working media see 18% greater sales lift from marketing and 7% greater overall revenue growth.

The companies spending more on technology than ads are outperforming the ones doing the opposite.

I'm not saying abandon media spend. But the infrastructure underneath your marketing—your data, your automation, your ability to actually use what you're learning—matters more than it used to.

Old model: spend money to reach people, hope some convert.

New model: build systems that make every dollar smarter than the last one.

The Expectation-Budget Gap

Here's what's actually happening in most organizations.

Leadership sees marketing as a growth driver. They want big results. They want marketing to generate pipeline, build brand, prove ROI, integrate AI, deal with privacy changes, and predict what's coming next.

Then they hand you the same budget as last year. Maybe a small increase if you're lucky.

This isn't news to anyone in a marketing leadership role. But the gap is getting worse. The CMO Survey found that while 84% of marketing leaders expected budget increases heading into 2025, those expectations are running headfirst into market volatility and organizational caution.

You're being asked to transform while being funded to maintain.

Two choices: fight for more budget (good luck with that), or rethink how you allocate what you have.

What's Actually Different Now

Let's get specific about what changed and why your old allocation model is probably wrong.

AI is no longer optional. Every major platform rolled out AI integration this year. Campaign automation, attribution modeling, creative optimization—all being rebuilt around AI. Companies that treated AI as a shortcut are getting outpaced by companies that rebuilt their systems around it. If your 2026 budget doesn't include real AI integration costs, you're planning to fall behind.

Third-party data is dying faster than expected. Privacy enforcement tightened again this year. Cross-app tracking and location-based targeting keep getting squeezed. If your budget assumes you can target the way you did in 2022, you're allocating money to capabilities that won't exist. First-party and zero-party data collection is the foundation now.

Attribution got harder. Last-click models are basically useless. AI-powered marketing mix models crushed traditional attribution during holiday spend this year. If you're not budgeting for better measurement, you won't be able to prove what's working—and you'll lose the next budget fight too.

Owned properties are making a comeback. After years of "social-first" thinking, conversions are drifting back to websites and owned channels. Brands are investing in faster infrastructure, cleaner user journeys, and clearer messaging. Your website isn't a brochure. It's your most controllable conversion asset.

The Creator Economy Isn't Optional Anymore

Too many brands are still getting this wrong. They're budgeting for polished production while their audience scrolls right past it looking for raw, personality-driven content.

The creator economy isn't a trend. It's the new distribution layer.

TikTok, Reels, YouTube Shorts, LinkedIn video—all fighting for the same seconds of attention. Audiences cluster around creators with a clear voice, not brands with big production budgets. Polished campaigns are blending into each other. Authentic content wins.

No line item for creator partnerships, UGC, and short-form video in 2026? You're missing where attention actually lives.

UGC outperforms brand content. User-generated content drives higher engagement and conversion rates than brand-produced content. Not even close. Consumers trust real people more than your marketing department. If you're not building a UGC pipeline—through customer programs or creator partnerships—you're paying more for less effective content.

Micro-influencers beat celebrity deals. The mega-influencer era is fading. Micro-influencers (10K-100K followers) and nano-influencers (under 10K) get higher engagement and more authentic connections with niche audiences. Way more affordable too. A portfolio of 20 micro-influencer partnerships almost always outperforms one big-name deal.

Short-form video is table stakes. If your brand isn't producing short-form video consistently, you're invisible to a growing chunk of your audience. Not about going viral. It's about showing up where people spend their time. The brands pulling ahead are publishing 3-5 short-form videos per week minimum—and most of it doesn't look like traditional advertising.

Local creators crush national campaigns. For businesses with any geographic focus, local creators outperform national plays. A Dallas restaurant doesn't need a celebrity endorsement. They need 10 local food creators making authentic content that reaches people who can actually walk through the door. Same applies to regional service businesses, multi-location brands, and B2B companies targeting specific markets.

Budget reality: creator content is cheaper, faster, and often more effective than traditional advertising. But it needs a different operational model. You need relationships with creators. You need a content calendar that moves at platform speed. You need to let go of the idea that every piece of content needs three rounds of legal review.

If your 2026 budget doesn't include dedicated spend for UGC programs, micro-influencer partnerships, and short-form video production, you're funding yesterday's playbook.

A Framework That Works

Here's how I'd approach 2026 budget planning.

Start with outcomes, not channels. What are you actually trying to accomplish? Pipeline? Brand awareness? Retention? Expansion revenue? Define outcomes first, then work backward to what drives them. Channel-first budgeting is how you end up with "we've always spent X on paid search" without asking if it still makes sense.

Three buckets. Foundation (systems and infrastructure that make everything else work), Fuel (media and content that drives activity), and Experimentation (things you're testing that might become next year's foundation or fuel). Most companies are over-indexed on Fuel and under-indexed on Foundation.

Build in flexibility. The market moved fast this year. It'll move fast next year. Locking 100% of your budget into fixed commitments in January means you can't respond when something shifts in June. Keep a reserve—10-15%—that you can redirect based on what you learn.

Measurement before activity. If you can't prove what's working, you can't optimize. If you can't optimize, you're just spending and hoping. Better attribution and analytics should be near the top of your list, not an afterthought.

Account for AI learning curve. AI tools are powerful, but they're not plug-and-play. Your team needs time to learn them, integrate them, and figure out what works for your situation. Budget for training, experimentation, and the productivity dip that comes before the productivity gain.

Make creator spend visible. Don't bury UGC and influencer partnerships inside your "content" or "social" budget. Make it a separate line item. Forces the conversation about how much you're actually investing where attention is moving. Start with 10-15% of your content budget if you're new to this. Scale based on results.

The Hard Conversation

If leadership expects marketing to drive major growth but won't fund the changes required to deliver it, you have a strategy problem, not a budget problem.

Change costs money. Not just media money—systems money, people money, time money.

The companies pulling ahead aren't the ones with the biggest budgets. They're the ones who rebuilt their marketing operations around how things actually work today, not how they worked five years ago.

Fighting for budget this month? Don't just fight for more dollars. Fight for permission to spend dollars differently.

What to Cut

Budget planning isn't just about what to fund. It's about what to stop funding.

Short list of things most companies should reduce or eliminate in 2026:

Tools nobody uses. Audit your martech stack. If a tool hasn't been touched in six months, kill it. The average marketing team has 10+ tools they're paying for and barely using.

Campaigns you can't measure. If you can't connect activity to outcome, question whether you should keep doing it. "We've always done this" isn't a strategy.

Broad targeting. Spray-and-pray costs more and converts less every year. Narrow your targeting, even if it means reaching fewer people.

Overproduced content that doesn't convert. That $50,000 brand video with 2,000 views? Compare that to what 50 pieces of creator content could have done for the same money. Production value matters less than authenticity and volume.

Content for content's sake. Volume doesn't matter without engagement. Cut the filler. Focus on content that moves people toward a decision.

Agencies stuck in 2019. If your agencies are still pitching old playbooks, find partners who get what's changed. That includes agencies without a credible short-form video or creator strategy.

Bottom Line

Your 2026 marketing budget is a bet on what you think will work next year.

Betting on the same things that worked in 2019? You're betting against the evidence. The companies winning now are investing differently—more infrastructure, better measurement, smarter systems, creator partnerships, short-form video, less spray-and-pray.

The budget template might look the same. The thinking behind it shouldn't.

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